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Spartak Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
3/21/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv64%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
2.19
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.00

Spartak Plovdiv creates 119% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
84%
Spartak Plovdiv or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
36%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
41%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
64%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
80%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.19

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
64%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
16%

Spartak Plovdiv at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 2–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Spartak Plovdiv beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 21, 2026.