Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Plovdiv

9/7/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Stadion Lokomotiv - Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II42%

×Draw24%

Spartak Plovdiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.39

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.58

Spartak Plovdiv

1.39

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

1.75

creates per match

1.62

1.15

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.75

Spartak Plovdiv

1.62

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.15

Spartak Plovdiv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw

66%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Spartak Plovdiv

76%

Draw or Spartak Plovdiv

58%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+

21%

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals

47%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

56%

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more

42%

level

24%

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

34%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff