Spartak Plovdiv 0–3 Izvor Gorski izvor

Spartak Plovdiv

FT

0 – 3

Izvor Gorski izvor

2/27/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Todor Diev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv63%

×Draw21%

Izvor Gorski izvor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlovdivExpected goals in this matchIzvor Gorski izvor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.87

Spartak Plovdiv

1.98

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.87

Spartak Plovdiv creates 128% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

2.72

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv

2.72

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.88

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv

0.86

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw

84%

Spartak Plovdiv or Izvor Gorski izvor

79%

Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor

37%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

38%

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

86%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

59%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

31%

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals

58%

Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals

22%

Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

80%

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.98

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

63%

level

21%

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more

16%

Spartak Plovdiv at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff