Izvor Gorski izvor 0–0 Spartak Plovdiv

Izvor Gorski izvor

FT

0 – 0

Spartak Plovdiv

8/15/2020

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 2Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor44%

×Draw25%

Spartak Plovdiv30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Izvor Gorski izvorExpected goals in this matchSpartak Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.22

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.53

Spartak Plovdiv

1.22

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

1.65

creates per match

1.62

0.82

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.65

Spartak Plovdiv

1.62

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.82

Spartak Plovdiv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw

70%

Izvor Gorski izvor or Spartak Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Spartak Plovdiv

56%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+

22%

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals

78%

Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals

45%

Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals

20%

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

70%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

34%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)

59%

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more

44%

level

25%

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

30%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff