Spartak Plovdiv 0–1 Gigant Saedinenie

Spartak Plovdiv

FT

0 – 1

Gigant Saedinenie

5/24/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Vekta complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv62%

×Draw21%

Gigant Saedinenie18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlovdivExpected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.01

Spartak Plovdiv

2.07

Gigant Saedinenie

1.01

Spartak Plovdiv creates 105% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 136 away

2.72

creates per match

1.17

0.86

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv

2.72

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv

0.86

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw

82%

Spartak Plovdiv or Gigant Saedinenie

79%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

38%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

38%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

87%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

61%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

34%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

64%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

27%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

78%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.07

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

62%

level

21%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

18%

Spartak Plovdiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff