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Gigant Saedinenie vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
1 – 1
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
3/16/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie48%
×Draw25%
Spartak Plovdiv28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.63
Spartak Plovdiv
1.18

Gigant Saedinenie creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 92 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
72%
Gigant Saedinenie or Spartak Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
52%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
25%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
80%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
48%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
22%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
48%
level
25%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
28%

Gigant Saedinenie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 1–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Gigant Saedinenie and Spartak Plovdiv drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.