Spartak Plovdiv 7–2 Dimitrovgrad: Result & Stats

Spartak Plovdiv

FT

7 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Dimitrovgrad

3/8/2026

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv71%

×Draw18%

Dimitrovgrad12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlovdivExpected goals in this matchDimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.83

Spartak Plovdiv

2.33

Dimitrovgrad

0.83

Spartak Plovdiv creates 181% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 135 away

2.72

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv

2.72

Dimitrovgrad

0.80

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv

0.86

Dimitrovgrad

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw

88%

Spartak Plovdiv or Dimitrovgrad

82%

Draw or Dimitrovgrad

29%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

47%

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

90%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

67%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

41%

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

56%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

20%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

86%

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

71%

level

18%

Dimitrovgrad scores more

12%

Spartak Plovdiv at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff