Dimitrovgrad 1–4 Spartak Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Spartak Plovdiv

10/12/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 12Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dimitrovgrad40%

×Draw25%

Spartak Plovdiv35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchSpartak Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.37

Dimitrovgrad

1.50

Spartak Plovdiv

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

1.58

creates per match

1.62

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Spartak Plovdiv

1.62

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Spartak Plovdiv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

65%

Dimitrovgrad or Spartak Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Spartak Plovdiv

60%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

20%

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

78%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

44%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

54%

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

40%

level

25%

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

35%

Dimitrovgrad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff