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Spartak Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
5/12/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 34Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Spartak Plovdiv56%
×Draw22%
Botev Plovdiv II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Plovdiv
1.99
Botev Plovdiv II
1.17

Spartak Plovdiv creates 70% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Spartak Plovdiv
2.72
Botev Plovdiv II
1.47

allows per match

Spartak Plovdiv
0.86
Botev Plovdiv II
1.26

finishing

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Plovdiv ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Plovdiv or draw
78%
Spartak Plovdiv or Botev Plovdiv II
78%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
44%

Winning margin

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
33%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
59%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
32%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
69%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
33%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
72%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Plovdiv at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Plovdiv attack 2.72 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.99

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Plovdiv scores more
56%
level
22%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
22%

Spartak Plovdiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Spartak Plovdiv 1–1 Botev Plovdiv II

Spartak Plovdiv and Botev Plovdiv II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.