Botev Plovdiv II 1–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Plovdiv

10/27/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 15Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II50%

×Draw21%

Spartak Plovdiv29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.63

Botev Plovdiv II

2.19

Spartak Plovdiv

1.63

Botev Plovdiv II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

2.95

creates per match

1.62

1.63

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

2.95

Spartak Plovdiv

1.62

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.63

Spartak Plovdiv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

71%

Botev Plovdiv II or Spartak Plovdiv

79%

Draw or Spartak Plovdiv

50%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

30%

Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

89%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

64%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

37%

Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals

80%

Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals

48%

Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

64%

Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.19

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

50%

level

21%

Spartak Plovdiv scores more

29%

Botev Plovdiv II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff