Spartak Pleven 0–1 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

12/10/2023

Second League · Round 20Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Spartak Pleven31%

×Draw27%

Septemvri Sofia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.31

Spartak Pleven

1.10

Septemvri Sofia

1.31

Septemvri Sofia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 60 away

1.20

creates per match

1.57

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

1.20

Septemvri Sofia

1.57

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

1.06

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

59%

Spartak Pleven or Septemvri Sofia

73%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

69%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

12%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

67%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

30%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

10%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

73%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

38%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

43%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

31%

level

27%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

41%

Septemvri Sofia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff