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Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
7/28/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 3Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Septemvri Sofia60%
×Draw23%
Spartak Pleven17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
1.80
Spartak Pleven
0.83

Septemvri Sofia creates 117% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 80 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
2.10
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
0.88
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
83%
Septemvri Sofia or Spartak Pleven
77%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
40%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
35%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
83%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
54%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
27%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
56%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
20%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
78%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
60%
level
23%
Spartak Pleven scores more
17%

Septemvri Sofia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Pleven

Septemvri Sofia beat Spartak Pleven 2-1 in Second League on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.