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Spartak Pleven vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
11/25/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Spartak Pleven52%
×Draw26%
Maritsa Plovdiv22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.54
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91

Spartak Pleven creates 69% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 52 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.75

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.88

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
78%
Spartak Pleven or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
48%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
27%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
20%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
60%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
23%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
70%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
52%
level
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
22%

Spartak Pleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Pleven 2–0 Maritsa Plovdiv

Spartak Pleven beat Maritsa Plovdiv 2-0 in Second League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.