Maritsa Plovdiv 2–1 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Maritsa Plovdiv

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Pleven

7/15/2023

Second League · Round 1Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv51%

×Draw26%

Spartak Pleven23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritsa PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.92

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.52

Spartak Pleven

0.92

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 65% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 80 away

1.54

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.54

Spartak Pleven

0.78

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.06

Spartak Pleven

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw

77%

Maritsa Plovdiv or Spartak Pleven

74%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

49%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

26%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

78%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

45%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

20%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

60%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

23%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

69%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

51%

level

26%

Spartak Pleven scores more

23%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff