Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Pleven vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
3/20/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Pleven38%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.19
Levski Krumovgrad
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
66%
Spartak Pleven or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
62%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
16%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
12%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
67%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
31%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
52%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
38%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
34%

Spartak Pleven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Levski Krumovgrad

Spartak Pleven and Levski Krumovgrad drew 1-1 in Second League on March 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.