Levski Krumovgrad 2–1 Spartak Pleven

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Pleven

A. Osman 90+2'

T. Radev 27'

Klauber 74'

8/23/2022

Second League · Round 6Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad53%

×Draw27%

Spartak Pleven20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.77

Levski Krumovgrad

1.43

Spartak Pleven

0.77

Levski Krumovgrad creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

0.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.35

Spartak Pleven

0.78

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

0.76

Spartak Pleven

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

80%

Levski Krumovgrad or Spartak Pleven

73%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

47%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

26%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

76%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

42%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

17%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

54%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

18%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

72%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.35 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

53%

level

27%

Spartak Pleven scores more

20%

Levski Krumovgrad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

T. Radev

46'

V. Ivanov← M. Stoilov

46'

V. Makaveev← I. Bakalski

51'

K. Nichev

62'

P. Dylan← V. Uzunov

64'

P. Dylan

70'

G. Trifonov← Henrique Devens

74'

Klauber

80'

A. Osman← D. Yashar

82'

K. Ivanov← B. Karamfilov

85'

I. Varbanov

87'

A. Georgiev

88'

D. Kalchev← A. Georgiev

88'

S. Makaveev← S. Hristov

90+3'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

90+2'

Levski

Spartak

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Vavalis

62'▲P. Dylan←▼V. Uzunov

70'▲G. Trifonov←▼Henrique Devens

80'▲A. Osman←▼D. Yashar

Levski Krumovgrad substitutes

DylanTrifonovOsmanStoimenovTasholovBadanovYusein

Manager: K. Bislimov

46'▲V. Ivanov←▼M. Stoilov

46'▲V. Makaveev←▼I. Bakalski

82'▲K. Ivanov←▼B. Karamfilov

88'▲D. Kalchev←▼A. Georgiev

88'▲S. Makaveev←▼S. Hristov

Spartak Pleven substitutes

IvanovMakaveevIvanovKalchevMakaveevVasilevBozhinov

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Spartak Pleven

Levski Krumovgrad beat Spartak Pleven 2-1 in Second League on August 23, 2022.

Goals: T. Radev (27'), Klauber (74'), A. Osman (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.

Levski Krumovgrad vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Spartak Pleven