Spartak Pleven 2–5 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 5

Dunav Ruse

7/20/2024

Second League · Round 1Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Spartak Pleven37%

×Draw28%

Dunav Ruse35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Spartak Pleven

1.17

Dunav Ruse

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

1.20

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

1.06

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

65%

Spartak Pleven or Dunav Ruse

72%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

63%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

15%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

69%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

33%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

11%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

68%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

31%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

51%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

37%

level

28%

Dunav Ruse scores more

35%

Spartak Pleven at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff