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Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Pleven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
CANC
12:00
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
1/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunav Ruse60%
×Draw21%
Spartak Pleven19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.99
Spartak Pleven
1.02

Dunav Ruse creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.83
Spartak Pleven
0.54

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
1.50
Spartak Pleven
2.15

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
81%
Dunav Ruse or Spartak Pleven
79%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
40%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
36%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
86%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
59%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
32%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
64%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
27%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
76%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.83 + Spartak Pleven defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.99

Spartak Pleven attack 0.54 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
60%
level
21%
Spartak Pleven scores more
19%

Dunav Ruse at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunav Ruse face Spartak Pleven (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Dunav Ruse hosting Spartak Pleven. Match starts January 24, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.