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Spartak Pleven vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
1 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
4/11/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 26Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Spartak Pleven80%
×Draw13%
Drenovets7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
2.74
Drenovets
0.67

Spartak Pleven creates 309% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
2.92
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
0.58
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
93%
Spartak Pleven or Drenovets
87%
Draw or Drenovets
20%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
59%
Drenovets wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
93%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
75%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
51%
Drenovets 1+ goals
49%
Drenovets 2+ goals
15%
Drenovets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
92%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.74

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
80%
level
13%
Drenovets scores more
7%

Spartak Pleven at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Spartak Pleven 1–0 Drenovets

Spartak Pleven beat Drenovets 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.