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Drenovets vs Spartak Pleven — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
1 – 3
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
10/4/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Drenovets28%
×Draw23%
Spartak Pleven49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.85

Spartak Pleven creates 37% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 48 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Spartak Pleven
2.08

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Spartak Pleven
0.75

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
51%
Drenovets or Spartak Pleven
77%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
72%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
12%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
74%
Drenovets 2+ goals
39%
Drenovets 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
36%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Drenovets scores more
28%
level
23%
Spartak Pleven scores more
49%

Spartak Pleven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drenovets 1 – 3 Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven beat Drenovets 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.