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Spartak Pleven vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
11/9/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Spartak Pleven52%
×Draw27%
Chernomorets Balchik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.45
Chernomorets Balchik
0.83

Spartak Pleven creates 75% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 43 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
78%
Spartak Pleven or Chernomorets Balchik
73%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
48%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
26%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
42%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
18%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
56%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
20%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
71%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
52%
level
27%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
22%

Spartak Pleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Chernomorets Balchik

Chernomorets Balchik beat Spartak Pleven 1-0 in Second League on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.