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Chernomorets Balchik vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
8/27/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik47%
×Draw28%
Spartak Pleven25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
1.34
Spartak Pleven
0.88

Chernomorets Balchik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 79 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
1.21
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.98
Spartak Pleven
1.48

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
75%
Chernomorets Balchik or Spartak Pleven
72%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
53%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
22%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
74%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
39%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
22%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
66%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.21 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
47%
level
28%
Spartak Pleven scores more
25%

Chernomorets Balchik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Chernomorets Balchik 0–1 Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Second League on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.