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Spartak Pleven vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
4/22/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 27Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Spartak Pleven70%
×Draw17%
Botev Vratsa II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
2.37
Botev Vratsa II
0.87

Spartak Pleven creates 172% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 61 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
2.92
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
0.58
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
88%
Spartak Pleven or Botev Vratsa II
83%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
30%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
47%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
68%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
42%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
58%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
22%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
85%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
70%
level
17%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
12%

Spartak Pleven at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Spartak Pleven 0–1 Botev Vratsa II

Botev Vratsa II beat Spartak Pleven 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.