Botev Vratsa II 0–2 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa II

FT

0 – 2

Spartak Pleven

10/9/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 10Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Botev Vratsa II25%

×Draw23%

Spartak Pleven52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Vratsa IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.83

Botev Vratsa II

1.18

Spartak Pleven

1.83

Spartak Pleven creates 55% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 48 away

1.61

creates per match

2.08

1.58

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.61

Spartak Pleven

2.08

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.58

Spartak Pleven

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw

48%

Botev Vratsa II or Spartak Pleven

77%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

75%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

10%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

69%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

33%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

12%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

84%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

54%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

32%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more

25%

level

23%

Spartak Pleven scores more

52%

Spartak Pleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff