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Spartak Pleven vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
5/5/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartak Pleven56%
×Draw25%
Botev Plovdiv II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.56
Botev Plovdiv II
0.79

Spartak Pleven creates 97% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 54 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
81%
Spartak Pleven or Botev Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
44%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
29%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
46%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
21%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
55%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
19%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
75%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
56%
level
25%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
19%

Spartak Pleven at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Botev Plovdiv II

Botev Plovdiv II beat Spartak Pleven 2-0 in Second League on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.