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Botev Plovdiv II vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
3/31/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II45%
×Draw28%
Spartak Pleven27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.35
Spartak Pleven
0.99

Botev Plovdiv II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 80 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
73%
Botev Plovdiv II or Spartak Pleven
72%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
55%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
74%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
39%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
63%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
62%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
45%
level
28%
Spartak Pleven scores more
27%

Botev Plovdiv II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Spartak Pleven

Botev Plovdiv II and Spartak Pleven drew 3-3 in Second League on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.