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Spartak Nalchik vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
3/20/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spartak Nalchik46%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar III28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.52
Krasnodar III
1.12

Spartak Nalchik creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 16 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.34
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.11
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
72%
Spartak Nalchik or Krasnodar III
74%
Draw or Krasnodar III
54%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
23%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
20%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
67%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
31%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
62%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
46%
level
26%
Krasnodar III scores more
28%

Spartak Nalchik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Spartak Nalchik 0–1 Krasnodar III

Krasnodar III beat Spartak Nalchik 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Nal'chik.