Krasnodar III 3–2 Spartak Nalchik: Result & Stats

Krasnodar III

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Spartak Nalchik

8/23/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III33%

×Draw25%

Spartak Nalchik42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar IIIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Nalchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

Krasnodar III

1.35

Spartak Nalchik

1.56

Spartak Nalchik creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 96 away

1.38

creates per match

1.24

1.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Krasnodar III

1.38

Spartak Nalchik

1.24

allows per match

Krasnodar III

1.88

Spartak Nalchik

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Spartak Nalchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw

58%

Krasnodar III or Spartak Nalchik

75%

Draw or Spartak Nalchik

67%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

15%

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

74%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

39%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

15%

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

44%

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krasnodar III scores more

33%

level

25%

Spartak Nalchik scores more

42%

Spartak Nalchik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff