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Spartak Nalchik vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
7/18/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spartak Nalchik47%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Makhachkala27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.50
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.08

Spartak Nalchik creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
0.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
73%
Spartak Nalchik or Dinamo Makhachkala
74%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
53%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
44%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.67 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Spartak Nalchik defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
47%
level
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
27%

Spartak Nalchik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Nalchik vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Spartak Nalchik beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-2 in Cup on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Nal'chik.