Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 Spartak Nalchik

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Nalchik

5/16/2022

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala55%

×Draw24%

Spartak Nalchik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Nalchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.99

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.75

Spartak Nalchik

0.99

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 77% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 96 away

2.16

creates per match

1.24

0.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

2.16

Spartak Nalchik

1.24

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.75

Spartak Nalchik

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Spartak Nalchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

79%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Spartak Nalchik

76%

Draw or Spartak Nalchik

45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

31%

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

25%

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

63%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

26%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

72%

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

55%

level

24%

Spartak Nalchik scores more

21%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff