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Spartak Myjava W vs Ružomberok W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ružomberok W
Ružomberok W
9/6/2025I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 4Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Spartak Myjava W83%
×Draw10%
Ružomberok W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava W
4.08
Ružomberok W
1.22

Spartak Myjava W creates 234% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 65 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava W
6.13
Ružomberok W
1.85

allows per match

Spartak Myjava W
0.58
Ružomberok W
2.03

finishing

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par
Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava W ↓

Ružomberok W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava W or draw
93%
Spartak Myjava W or Ružomberok W
90%
Draw or Ružomberok W
17%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
68%
Ružomberok W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
98%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
90%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
74%
Ružomberok W 1+ goals
70%
Ružomberok W 2+ goals
34%
Ružomberok W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
92%
Ružomberok W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava W at home — creates 6.13, concedes 0.58 · 69 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava W attack 6.13 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 4.08

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Spartak Myjava W scores more
83%
level
10%
Ružomberok W scores more
7%

Spartak Myjava W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Myjava W vs Ružomberok W

Spartak Myjava W beat Ružomberok W 2-0 in I Liga - Women on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.