Ružomberok W 1–3 Spartak Myjava W: Result & Stats

Ružomberok W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Myjava W

5/14/2025

I Liga - Women · Championship Round - 9Futbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ružomberok W20%

×Draw17%

Spartak Myjava W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ružomberok WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.81

Ružomberok W

1.59

Spartak Myjava W

2.81

Spartak Myjava W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 67 away

2.48

creates per match

4.19

1.43

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Ružomberok W

2.48

Spartak Myjava W

4.19

allows per match

Ružomberok W

1.43

Spartak Myjava W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Ružomberok W or draw

38%

Ružomberok W or Spartak Myjava W

83%

Draw or Spartak Myjava W

80%

Winning margin

Ružomberok W wins by 2+

9%

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Ružomberok W 1+ goals

80%

Ružomberok W 2+ goals

47%

Ružomberok W 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals

94%

Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals

76%

Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)

25%

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok W attack 2.48 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + Ružomberok W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ružomberok W scores more

20%

level

17%

Spartak Myjava W scores more

62%

Spartak Myjava W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff