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Spartak Myjava W vs GFC Topoľčany W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
FT
5 – 0
GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
10/22/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 10Umelá tráva Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spartak Myjava W93%
×Draw5%
GFC Topoľčany W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava W
5.06
GFC Topoľčany W
0.89

Spartak Myjava W creates 469% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava W
6.13
GFC Topoľčany W
1.19

allows per match

Spartak Myjava W
0.58
GFC Topoľčany W
4.00

finishing

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par
GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava W or draw
98%
Spartak Myjava W or GFC Topoľčany W
95%
Draw or GFC Topoľčany W
7%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
83%
GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
99%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
95%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
84%
GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
59%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
22%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
97%
GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava W at home — creates 6.13, concedes 0.58 · 69 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava W attack 6.13 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 5.06

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Spartak Myjava W scores more
93%
level
5%
GFC Topoľčany W scores more
2%

Spartak Myjava W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Spartak Myjava W 5–0 GFC Topoľčany W

Spartak Myjava W beat GFC Topoľčany W 5-0 in I Liga - Women on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Myjava in Myjava.