GFC Topoľčany W 0–8 Spartak Myjava W

GFC Topoľčany W

FT

0 – 8

Spartak Myjava W

8/19/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 2Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W13%

×Draw15%

Spartak Myjava W72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFC Topoľčany WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

2.87

GFC Topoľčany W

1.16

Spartak Myjava W

2.87

Spartak Myjava W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

1.62

creates per match

4.19

1.54

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.62

Spartak Myjava W

4.19

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.54

Spartak Myjava W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw

28%

GFC Topoľčany W or Spartak Myjava W

85%

Draw or Spartak Myjava W

87%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

5%

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

69%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

32%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

11%

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals

94%

Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals

77%

Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

15%

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.16

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

13%

level

15%

Spartak Myjava W scores more

72%

Spartak Myjava W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff