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Spartak Myjava vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
4/16/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Myjava82%
×Draw12%
Slovan Levice6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
2.81
Slovan Levice
0.63

Spartak Myjava creates 346% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
94%
Spartak Myjava or Slovan Levice
88%
Draw or Slovan Levice
18%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
62%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
94%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
76%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
52%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
47%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
13%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
93%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.81

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
82%
level
12%
Slovan Levice scores more
6%

Spartak Myjava at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Myjava vs Slovan Levice

Spartak Myjava beat Slovan Levice 6-1 in 3. liga - West on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.