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Slovan Levice vs Spartak Myjava — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
FT
0 – 5
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
9/12/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice30%
×Draw27%
Spartak Myjava43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Levice
1.10
Spartak Myjava
1.38

Spartak Myjava creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

Slovan Levice
1.12
Spartak Myjava
1.47

allows per match

Slovan Levice
1.29
Spartak Myjava
1.09

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw
57%
Slovan Levice or Spartak Myjava
73%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
70%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+
12%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals
67%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
30%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
10%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
41%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovan Levice scores more
30%
level
27%
Spartak Myjava scores more
43%

Spartak Myjava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Levice vs Spartak Myjava

Spartak Myjava beat Slovan Levice 5-0 in 3. liga - West on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Levice in Levice.