Spartak Myjava 2–2 Považská Bystrica

Spartak Myjava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Považská Bystrica

9/16/2022

2. liga · Round 10Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Spartak Myjava43%

×Draw25%

Považská Bystrica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MyjavaExpected goals in this matchPovažská Bystrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.26

Spartak Myjava

1.52

Považská Bystrica

1.26

Spartak Myjava creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.23

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Spartak Myjava

1.50

Považská Bystrica

1.29

allows per match

Spartak Myjava

1.23

Považská Bystrica

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Považská Bystrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw

68%

Spartak Myjava or Považská Bystrica

75%

Draw or Považská Bystrica

57%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+

21%

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals

78%

Spartak Myjava 2+ goals

45%

Spartak Myjava 3+ goals

20%

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

72%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

36%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)

58%

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 1.50 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more

43%

level

25%

Považská Bystrica scores more

32%

Spartak Myjava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff