Považská Bystrica 2–4 Spartak Myjava

Považská Bystrica

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Spartak Myjava

4/15/2023

2. liga · Round 25Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Považská Bystrica44%

×Draw24%

Spartak Myjava32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.40

Považská Bystrica

1.67

Spartak Myjava

1.40

Považská Bystrica creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

1.81

creates per match

1.43

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Spartak Myjava

1.43

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Spartak Myjava

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Spartak Myjava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

68%

Považská Bystrica or Spartak Myjava

76%

Draw or Spartak Myjava

56%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

23%

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

81%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

50%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

23%

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Myjava 2+ goals

41%

Spartak Myjava 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

58%

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spartak Myjava attack 1.43 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

44%

level

24%

Spartak Myjava scores more

32%

Považská Bystrica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff