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Spartak Myjava vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
3 – 1
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
8/29/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 4Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Spartak Myjava65%
×Draw21%
Lednické Rovne14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
1.99
Lednické Rovne
0.81

Spartak Myjava creates 146% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
86%
Spartak Myjava or Lednické Rovne
79%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
35%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
40%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
59%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
32%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
56%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
19%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
82%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
65%
level
21%
Lednické Rovne scores more
14%

Spartak Myjava at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Spartak Myjava 3–1 Lednické Rovne

Spartak Myjava beat Lednické Rovne 3-1 in 3. liga - West on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak Myjava in Myjava.