Lednické Rovne 1–3 Spartak Myjava: Result & Stats

Lednické Rovne

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Spartak Myjava

5/22/2022

3. liga - West · West - 28Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne24%

×Draw24%

Spartak Myjava52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lednické RovneExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.67

Lednické Rovne

1.06

Spartak Myjava

1.67

Spartak Myjava creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

1.04

creates per match

1.47

1.88

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Lednické Rovne

1.04

Spartak Myjava

1.47

allows per match

Lednické Rovne

1.88

Spartak Myjava

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Spartak Myjava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw

48%

Lednické Rovne or Spartak Myjava

76%

Draw or Spartak Myjava

76%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+

9%

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals

65%

Lednické Rovne 2+ goals

29%

Lednické Rovne 3+ goals

9%

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals

81%

Spartak Myjava 2+ goals

50%

Spartak Myjava 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)

32%

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more

24%

level

24%

Spartak Myjava scores more

52%

Spartak Myjava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff