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Spartak Myjava vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
CANC
15:00
Imeľ
Imeľ
6/20/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spartak Myjava66%
×Draw21%
Imeľ13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
1.96
Imeľ
0.74

Spartak Myjava creates 165% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 25 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
87%
Spartak Myjava or Imeľ
79%
Draw or Imeľ
34%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
41%
Imeľ wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
58%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
31%
Imeľ 1+ goals
52%
Imeľ 2+ goals
17%
Imeľ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
83%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
66%
level
21%
Imeľ scores more
13%

Spartak Myjava at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Myjava host Imeľ

June 20, 2021: Spartak Myjava take on Imeľ in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.