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Imeľ vs Spartak Myjava — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
6/26/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión ŠK Nesvady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ32%
×Draw27%
Spartak Myjava42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.17
Spartak Myjava
1.38

Spartak Myjava creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 55 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Spartak Myjava
1.47

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Spartak Myjava
1.09

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
58%
Imeľ or Spartak Myjava
73%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
68%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
69%
Imeľ 2+ goals
33%
Imeľ 3+ goals
11%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
43%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Imeľ scores more
32%
level
27%
Spartak Myjava scores more
42%

Spartak Myjava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imeľ vs Spartak Myjava

Spartak Myjava beat Imeľ 1-0 in 3. liga - West on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión ŠK Nesvady in Nesvady.