Spartak Moscow 2–1 Napoli: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Napoli

A. Sobolev 28', 3' (pen)

E. Elmas 64'

11/24/2021

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 5Otkrytiye Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Spartak Moscow34%

×Draw22%

Napoli44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.88

Spartak Moscow

1.64

Napoli

1.88

Napoli creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

1.64

2.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

2.00

Napoli

1.64

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

2.13

Napoli

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

56%

Spartak Moscow or Napoli

78%

Draw or Napoli

66%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Napoli wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

81%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

49%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

23%

Napoli 1+ goals

85%

Napoli 2+ goals

56%

Napoli 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

44%

Napoli (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.00 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Napoli attack 1.64 + Spartak Moscow defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

34%

level

22%

Napoli scores more

44%

Napoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Sobolev

Spartak Moscow · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

A. SobolevPenalty

14'

Ruslan Litvinov

28'

A. Sobolev↳ V. Moses

64'

E. Elmas↳ A. Petagna

72'

A. Lomovitskiy← M. Ignatov

77'

Kalidou Koulibaly

79'

A. Rrahmani← S. Lobotka

83'

N. Rasskazov← V. Moses

87'

Aleksandr Sobolev

90+2'

Quincy Promes

90+2'

J. Larsson← Q. Promes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakNapoli

Overview

30%Possession70%

12Total Shots19

3Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots19

4On Target8

6Off Target8

2Blocked3

9Inside Box18

3Outside Box1

Passing

30%Possession70%

267Total Passes639

201Accurate Passes560

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2