Napoli 2–3 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Moscow

V. Osimhen 90+4'

E. Elmas 1'

Q. Promes 90', 55'

M. Ignatov 80'

9/30/2021

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 2Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Napoli50%

×Draw24%

Spartak Moscow27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

Napoli

1.73

Spartak Moscow

1.20

Napoli creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Napoli

2.20

Spartak Moscow

1.00

allows per match

Napoli

1.40

Spartak Moscow

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

73%

Napoli or Spartak Moscow

76%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

50%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

27%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

82%

Napoli 2+ goals

52%

Napoli 3+ goals

25%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

65%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.20 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Spartak Moscow attack 1.00 + Napoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Napoli scores more

50%

level

24%

Spartak Moscow scores more

27%

Napoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Q. Promes

Spartak Moscow · F

9.0

Match Events

1'

E. Elmas

30'

Mário Rui

30'

Mário RuiCard upgrade

41'

K. Malcuit← L. Insigne

44'

45+8'

45+7'

45+1'

45+5'

Quincy PromesPenalty confirmed

45+1'

A. Sobolev← E. Ponce

46'

A. Zambo Anguissa← P. Zieliński

46'

V. Osimhen← A. Petagna

55'

Q. Promes

65'

Kalidou Koulibaly

65'

Maximiliano Caufriez

73'

H. Lozano← M. Politano

73'

M. Ignatov← R. Litvinov

77'

78'

80'

82'

82'

82'

84'

89'

89'

A. Lomovitskiy← Z. Bakaev

90+10'

Nail Umyarov

90'

Q. Promes↳ A. Sobolev

90+4'

V. Osimhen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliSpartak

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots15

6Corners9

11Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target3

4Off Target6

4Blocked6

11Inside Box11

0Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

416Total Passes436

354Accurate Passes373

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls19

4Yellow Cards8

1Red Cards1

6Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Napoli 2–3 Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat Napoli 3-2 in UEFA Europa League on September 30, 2021.

Goals: E. Elmas (1'), Q. Promes (55', 90'), M. Ignatov (80'), V. Osimhen (90+4').

Spartak Moscow controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.

Napoli vs Spartak Moscow — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Napoli 2–3 Spartak Moscow