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Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh — Premier League 2018

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
3/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Otkritie Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartak Moscow56%
×Draw24%
Fakel Voronezh20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.69
Fakel Voronezh
0.89

Spartak Moscow creates 90% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 46 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
Fakel Voronezh
0.74

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.04
Fakel Voronezh
1.67

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
80%
Spartak Moscow or Fakel Voronezh
76%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
44%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
31%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
24%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
59%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
22%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
74%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.74 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
56%
level
24%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
20%

Spartak Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh

Spartak Moscow beat Fakel Voronezh 3-2 in Premier League on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Otkritie Bank Arena in Moskva.