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Fakel vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
5/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Stadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel33%
×Draw29%
Spartak Moscow38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.07
Spartak Moscow
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 120 away

creates per match

Fakel
0.89
Spartak Moscow
1.35

allows per match

Fakel
0.96
Spartak Moscow
1.26

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
62%
Fakel or Spartak Moscow
71%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
67%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
66%
Fakel 2+ goals
29%
Fakel 3+ goals
9%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
47%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.89 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fakel scores more
33%
level
29%
Spartak Moscow scores more
38%

Spartak Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel vs Spartak Moscow

Fakel and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.