Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo: Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow

Preview

16:00

Dynamo

12/5/2026

Premier League · Round 17Lukoil Arena

Big match

39%

Spartak Moscow

model favours

39%25%36%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Moscow39%

×Draw25%

Dynamo36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.36

Spartak Moscow

1.42

Dynamo

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

1.54

1.18

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.71

Dynamo

1.54

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.18

Dynamo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

64%

Spartak Moscow or Dynamo

75%

Draw or Dynamo

61%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Dynamo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

76%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

41%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

17%

Dynamo 1+ goals

74%

Dynamo 2+ goals

39%

Dynamo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.71 + Dynamo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dynamo attack 1.54 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

39%

level

25%

Dynamo scores more

36%

Spartak Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Spartak Moscow score first in only 8% of matches
Dynamo have won 3 in a row
67% of Spartak Moscow’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Spartak Moscow win just 29% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
Dynamo win just 21% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)