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Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo — Cup 2025

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscowadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamo
C. Wooh 58'
3/18/2026CupCup · Semi-finalsLukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Moscow39%
×Draw25%
Dynamo36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.50
Dynamo
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
2.00
Dynamo
2.25

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
0.60
Dynamo
1.00

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
64%
Spartak Moscow or Dynamo
75%
Draw or Dynamo
61%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
19%
Dynamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
44%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
19%
Dynamo 1+ goals
76%
Dynamo 2+ goals
42%
Dynamo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
52%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Dynamo away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.00 + Dynamo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dynamo attack 2.25 + Spartak Moscow defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
39%
level
25%
Dynamo scores more
36%

Spartak Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Manfred Ugalde
39'
R. Fernandez← M. Osipenko
46'
P. Solari← O. Reabciuk
46'
Marquinhos← N. Massalyga
56'
D. Glebov← Rubens
56'
T. Marinkin← Bitello
58'
C. Wooh
65'
L. Garcia← M. Ugalde
70'
Daniil Glebov
72'
Marquinhos Costa
77'
C. Martins← D. Denisov
77'
I. Sergeev← K. Tyukavin
77'
L. Zaydenzal← D. Skopintsev
80'
Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu
87'
A. Zabolotnyi← R. Zobnin
90+4'
Daniil Fomin

Statistics

SpartakDynamo
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo

Spartak Moscow beat Dynamo 1-0 in Cup on March 18, 2026.

Goals: C. Wooh (58').

The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moscow.