Dynamo 5–2 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Dynamo

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow

M. Osipenko 83'

K. Tyukavin 73'

David Ricardo 70'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu 67', 5'

C. Martins 90'

M. Ugalde 30'

3/5/2026

Cup · Semi-finalsVTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dynamo37%

×Draw22%

Spartak Moscow41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.84

Dynamo

1.75

Spartak Moscow

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

2.40

1.29

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dynamo

1.71

Spartak Moscow

2.40

allows per match

Dynamo

1.29

Spartak Moscow

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

59%

Dynamo or Spartak Moscow

78%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

63%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

19%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

83%

Dynamo 2+ goals

52%

Dynamo 3+ goals

25%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

55%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

48%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 1.71 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spartak Moscow attack 2.40 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo scores more

37%

level

22%

Spartak Moscow scores more

41%

Spartak Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu↳ Bitello

17'

22'

23'

30'

45+2'

45'

47'

54'

65'

T. Marinkin← A. Kutitsky

65'

Y. Gladyshev← A. Miranchuk

67'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu↳ T. Marinkin

70'

David Ricardo↳ N. Moumi Ngamaleu

73'

K. Tyukavin↳ Y. Gladyshev

75'

I. Sergeev← K. Tyukavin

75'

I. Dmitriev← E. Barco

75'

L. Garcia← M. Ugalde

83'

M. Osipenko↳ Bitello

84'

Arthur Gomes← N. Moumi Ngamaleu

84'

L. Zaydenzal← D. Skopintsev

90'

C. Martins

Statistics

DynamoSpartak

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0