Spartak Moscow 2–2 Dynamo: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dynamo

E. Barco 23' (pen)

M. Ugalde 7'

K. Tyukavin 90+4', 3'

9/22/2024

Premier League · Round 9Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Spartak Moscow45%

×Draw24%

Dynamo31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.35

Spartak Moscow

1.67

Dynamo

1.35

Spartak Moscow creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

1.89

creates per match

1.68

1.03

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.89

Dynamo

1.68

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.03

Dynamo

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

69%

Spartak Moscow or Dynamo

76%

Draw or Dynamo

55%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

23%

Dynamo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

81%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

50%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

23%

Dynamo 1+ goals

74%

Dynamo 2+ goals

39%

Dynamo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

59%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.89 + Dynamo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dynamo attack 1.68 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

45%

level

24%

Dynamo scores more

31%

Spartak Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

K. Tyukavin

Dynamo · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

K. Tyukavin↳ N. Ngamaleu

7'

M. Ugalde

21'

Jesús MedinaPenalty confirmed

23'

E. BarcoPenalty

46'

D. Denisov← D. Khlusevich

52'

Srđan Babić

56'

Bitello

65'

C. Martins← R. Zobnin

68'

A. Kutitskiy← J. Carrascal

68'

E. Maouhoub← Arthur Gomes

72'

72'

74'

74'

76'

Ricardo Mangas← T. Bongonda

80'

Jesús Medina

82'

A. Zinkovskiy← J. Medina

82'

F. Balbuena← R. Fernández

82'

Y. Gladyshev← N. Ngamaleu

89'

D. Makarov← D. Fomin

90+4'

K. Tyukavin↳ F. Balbuena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakDynamo

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots10

6Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

425Total Passes337

352Accurate Passes269

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2